Global| Oct 23 2014U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Index Signals Continued Growth
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board increased 0.8% (6.3% y/y) last month following no change in August, revised from 0.2%. The series was at the highest level since August 2007 but the y/y gain of 6.3% [...]
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board increased 0.8% (6.3% y/y) last month following no change in August, revised from 0.2%. The series was at the highest level since August 2007 but the y/y gain of 6.3% was down from its 7.4% peak. Ninety percent of the component series improved m/m, the most since November 2010. A longer average workweek, fewer initial claims for jobless insurance, more building permits and higher stock prices led the way upward.
The index of coincident indicators increased 0.4% (2.7% y/y), the largest monthly gain since March. Each of the component series increased including nonfarm payroll employment, personal income less transfers, industrial production and business sales.
The lagging indicators index rose 0.1% (4.0% y/y), the weakest monthly reading since November. Recent positive contributions to the index, such as a shortened average duration of unemployment, more C&I loans outstanding and the six-month change in the services CPI, diminished greatly last month.
The index of coincident-to-lagging indicators is a measure of how the economy is performing versus its excesses. It rose last month for the first time since February.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figures for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.8 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 5.3 |
| Coincident | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
| Lagging | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
