Global| Dec 22 2016U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Hold Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators remained unchanged during November (0.7% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% October uptick. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The [...]
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators remained unchanged during November (0.7% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% October uptick. A 0.2% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The six-month change in the index improved to 2.0% (AR)
Contributing positively to the index last month were initial unemployment insurance claims, a steeper interest rate yield curve, nondefense capital goods orders, factory orders for consumer goods, stock prices, consumer expectations for business/economic conditions, stock prices and the leading credit index. Contributing negatively were the average workweek, building permits, a lower ISM new orders diffusion index and more initial claims for unemployment insurance.
The coincident index increased 0.1% (1.7%) following a 0.2% increase, revised from 0.1%. Six-month growth improved to 2.1%. Nonfarm payrolls, personal income less transfers and manufacturing & trade sales contributed positively to the index change. Industrial production contributed negatively.
The lagging index rose 0.3% (2.8% y/y) after an unrevised 0.2% gain. Six-month growth fell to 2.1% versus a 4.9% high early last year. The average duration of unemployment, change in commercial & industrial loans outstanding, the consumer installment credit/income ratio and the business I/S ratio contributed positively to the index. The six-month change in the services CPI and the six-month change in labor costs contributed negatively.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators also is a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures excesses in the economy relative to its ongoing performance. This ratio eased m/m to a record low.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 2.9 |
| Coincident | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| Lagging | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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