Global| Mar 17 2017U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Gain Is Steady & Firm
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.6% (3.1% y/y) during February, the same as during the prior two months. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A steeper [...]
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.6% (3.1% y/y) during February, the same as during the prior two months. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A steeper interest rate yield curve had the largest positive effect on the leading index, along with a higher ISM new orders index. Fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance followed along with higher stock prices. Improved consumer expectations for business/economic conditions and the leading credit index also added to the index's gain, but fewer building permits contributed negatively.
The Index of Coincident Economic Indicators increased 0.3% (2.0% y/y) after a 0.1% rise in January. It raised the three-month rate of growth to 3.2% (AR), its swiftest since January 2015. Each of the index component series contributed positively to last month's rise, including payroll employment, real personal income less transfers, manufacturing & trade sales and industrial production.
The Index of Lagging Economic Indicators rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y) after a 0.2% gain. The ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income accounted for the increase while the number of commercial & industrial loans outstanding contributed negatively.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators also is a leading indicator of economic activity. It measures excesses in the economy relative to its ongoing performance. This ratio increased slightly m/m from its record low.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The expectations are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 4.4 | 5.6 |
| Coincident | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Lagging | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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