Global| Nov 18 2010U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Firm Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.5% during October after an upwardly revised 0.5% September increase that was initially reported at 0.3%. The latest reading was a record high. Again, [...]
The Conference Board reported that its Index of Leading Economic
Indicators rose 0.5% during October after an upwardly revised 0.5% September
increase that was initially reported at 0.3%. The latest reading was a record
high. Again, the gains pulled the three-month rate of increase up moderately to
4.8% (AR). Early this year the index was rising at a double-digit rate. The
leading index is based on actual reports for eight economic data series. The
Conference Board initially estimates two series, consumer and capital goods
orders.
The breadth of increase amongst the component leading series improved to 75%, its highest since December. A steeper interest rate yield curve made the largest contribution followed by higher stock prices and a higher money supply. Average weekly hours worked and consumer expectation made modest positive contributions. Other series were roughly unchanged. Nondefense capital goods orders and vendor performance made negative contributions.
The index of coincident indicators ticked higher for the second month in the last five. The three-month change of 0.4% remained its weakest since October of last year. Three of the four component series ticked up last month including payroll employment, real personal income and business sales. Industrial production was unchanged.
The lagging index rose for the fifth consecutive month. The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators (another leading indicator) was unchanged after falling for four consecutive months..
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators(%) | Oct | Sept | Aug | 3 Mo %Chg Annual Rate |
2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 0.5 | -2.7 | -0.2 |
| Coincident | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 | -5.1 | -1.2 | 1.4 |
| Lagging | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 2.6 | -1.6 | 3.2 | 3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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