Global| Sep 19 2013U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Continue Upward
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The index of Leading Economic Indicators, published by the Conference Board, increased 0.7% last month (4.2% y/y). The gain was the strongest since April and followed an upwardly-revised 0.5% July increase. A 0.5% rise had been [...]
The index of Leading Economic Indicators, published by the Conference Board, increased 0.7% last month (4.2% y/y). The gain was the strongest since April and followed an upwardly-revised 0.5% July increase. A 0.5% rise had been expected for August in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The breadth of component increase increased sharply last month. Eighty-five percent of the component series had a positive influence on the index, the most since March 2011. A steeper interest rate yield curve and the ISM new orders index had the largest positive influences on the total. These were followed by the leading credit index, a longer workweek, lower initial claims for jobless insurance and higher nondefense capital goods orders.
The index of coincident indicators rose 0.2% (2.1% y/y) after a 0.1% July gain. Each of the component series - payroll employment, personal income less transfers, manufacturing & trade sales and industrial production - increased.
The index of lagging economic indicators rose 0.3% (2.3% y/y) following a revised 0.1% July slip. More C&I loans outstanding had the greatest positive effect on the index .
Another leading economic series is the ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators. It measures how the economy is performing versus its excesses. The figure slipped last month (-0.2% y/y) and has been moving sideways all year.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figures for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 5.1 | 8.0 |
| Coincident | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Lagging | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | -3.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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