Global| Dec 17 2015U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Continue to Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% during November following an unrevised 0.6% October rise. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% November gain. Three-month growth in the index [...]
The Conference Board's Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% during November following an unrevised 0.6% October rise. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% November gain. Three-month growth in the index jumped to 3.9% (AR), but it remained down from 6.7% in June. The largest positive contributions to the latest rise came from stronger building permits, a steeper interest rate yield curve, higher stock prices and an improved leading credit index. These were offset by a weaker ISM new orders index and higher initial unemployment insurance claims.
The coincident economic index ticked 0.1% higher after an unrevised 0.2% rise. The three-month growth rate eased to 2.1%, down from 2.9% in September. Nonfarm payroll employment, personal income less transfers and manufacturing & trade sales made positive contributions to the index while industrial production contributed negatively for a third straight month.
The lagging indicators series gained 0.3% after an unrevised 0.2% increase. Three-month growth in the index increased to 4.1%, but remained down from the 5.6% in July. More C&I loans, a higher consumer installment credit/personal income ratio and a stronger services CPI made the largest positive contributions to the index. An easier increase in labor costs and a lower inventory-to-sales ratio contributed negatively to the total's rise.
The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators is a measure of how the economy is performing versus its excesses. As the gain in the lagging series outpaced the coincident indicators, the ratio declined to its lowest level since April 2009, near the end of the last recession.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database; the components are available there, and most are also in USECON. The forecast figures for the Consensus are in the AS1REPNA database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 2.1 |
| Coincident | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Lagging | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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