Global| Jan 20 2011U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Are Strong Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Conference Board reported that its Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 1.0% during December after an unrevised 1.1% November gain. The latest level of the index was a record high and the monthly gain exceeded Consensus [...]
The Conference Board reported that its Index of Leading Economic
Indicators rose 1.0% during December after an unrevised 1.1% November gain. The
latest level of the index was a record high and the monthly gain exceeded
Consensus expectations for a 0.6% increase. These gains pulled the three-month
rate of increase up sharply to 10.2% (AR), its strongest since January. The
leading index is based on actual reports for eight economic data series. The
Conference Board initially estimates two series, consumer and capital goods
orders.
The breadth of increase amongst the component leading series remained firm at 70%. Higher building permits and a steeper interest rate yield curve together accounted for three-quarters of the December increase followed by lower initial claims for unemployment insurance, higher stock prices and improved consumer sentiment.
The index of coincident indicators ticked higher for the third month. The three-month change of 2.0% remained down sharply from 4.5% during May. Each of the four component series ticked up last month including payroll employment, real personal income, business sales and industrial production.
The lagging index rose 0.3% after the 0.1% November dip. The ratio of coincident-to-lagging indicators (another leading indicator) slipped following two months of increase. It remained 5.9% above its early 2009 low.
The Conference Board figures are available in Haver's BCI database. Visit the Conference Board's site for coverage of leading indicator series from around the world.
| Business Cycle Indicators(%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leading | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 0.3 | -3.1 |
| Coincident | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | -5.4 | -1.3 |
| Lagging | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | -2.9 | -1.9 | 3.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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