Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Jan 10 2012

U.S. JOLTS Rate Slips From Latest High

Summary

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the November job openings rate slipped to 2.3% from an unrevised 2.4%. Nevertheless, the latest reading remained improved versus the [...]


The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the November job openings rate slipped to 2.3% from an unrevised 2.4%. Nevertheless, the latest reading remained improved versus the recession low of 1.6%. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. The actual number of job openings fell 2.0% m/m (+6.6% y/y) but were still was near the highest level since June 2008. The number of private sector openings fell 1.6% (+6.8% y/y) while public sector openings fell 5.0% (+4.6% y/y).

The private-sector job openings rate held steady m/m at 2.5% and has moved steadily higher versus the recession low of 1.7%. The professional & business services job openings rate again fell sharply m/m to 2.9%, its lowest since April. The openings rate in trade, transportation & public utilities held for the third month at its high of 2.2% but education & health services remained a bit lower at 2.9%. In leisure & hospitality businesses the openings rate rose to its highest level (3.0%) since June, 2008 but in manufacturing it held at 1.9%, still double the mid-2009 low. The job openings rate in government fell to 1.5% and reversed its prior two month's improvement.

The hires rate also ticked back up to 3.2% and was up modestly versus the recession low of 2.8%. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The hires rate in the private sector held m/m at 3.5%, up versus the recession low of 3.1%. The government's depressed 1.3% rate was up m/m but, except for hiring with the 2010 Census, has remained depressed since 2008. Overall, hires in the private sector rose 5.4% y/y. Hires in professional & business services remained strong, up 10.5% y/y while in leisure & hospitality businesses hires rose by one-quarter y/y. In manufacturing they fell 12.9% y/y and were down 4.5% in education & heath services. Government sector hires rose 3.3% y/y.

The job separations rate held steady at 3.0% but the actual number of separations rose 3.3% y/y. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The layoff & discharge rate alone ticked up m/m to 1.3% but remained near its all-time low of 1.2%. The private sector layoff rate was 1.4% but in the public sector it was 0.5%.

The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.

JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey) Nov Oct Sep Nov'10 2010 2009 2008
Job Openings, Total
 Rate (%) 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.2 1.8 2.1
 Total (000s) 3,161 3,224 3,377 2,966 2,921 2,376 2,938
Hires, Total
 Rate (%) 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.0 36.3 34.7 39.3
 Total(000s) 4,149 4,042 4,150 3,943 47,190 45,364 53,903
Layoffs & Discharges, Total
 Rate (%) 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 16.4 20.0 17.6
 Total (000s) 1,691 1,595 1,723 1,739 21,225 26,328 23,706
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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