Global| Jun 08 2016U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Reaches Record High, But Hires Ease Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job openings rate increased to 3.9% during April after remaining at 3.8% for three months. The latest level equaled the record high. The private sector job openings rate increased to a record 4.2%. This rate compared to 2.2% in [...]
The job openings rate increased to 3.9% during April after remaining at 3.8% for three months. The latest level equaled the record high. The private sector job openings rate increased to a record 4.2%. This rate compared to 2.2% in the public sector. The 4.7% job opening rate in leisure & hospitality compared to 3.3% in the factory sector. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports these figures in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
The hires rate in April dropped sharply to 3.5%, the lowest level since August 2014. The private sector rate declined m/m to 3.9%, a three month low. The 6.2% rate in leisure & hospitality compared to 2.7% in education & health services. The hires rate of 5.1% in the construction sector compared to 1.6% in the public sector. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment.
The actual number of job openings increased 2.1% to a record 5.788 million (3.7% y/y). A 4.1% y/y rise in private sector openings was led by a 23.1% y/y surge in manufacturing and a 17.6% y/y increase in construction. These were followed by a 16.4% y/y gain in retail trade and a 6.4% y/y improvement in education & health services. Job openings in leisure & hospitality rose 5.1% y/y, but professional & business services openings fell 22.0% y/y. Government sector job openings were roughly unchanged y/y following gains of 7.6% and 39.8% in 2015 and 2014.
The number of hires declined 3.7% m/m to 5.092 million in April, the third decline in four months, and they were roughly steady y/y. Hires grew 5.2% during all of last year and 8.2% in 2014. Private sector hiring was little changed y/y versus peak 8.3% growth in 2014. Factory sector hiring grew 7.5% y/y and leisure & hospitality jobs rose 3.0% y/y. Jobs in educational & health services also increased 3.0% y/y. Construction jobs improved 1.3% y/y, but jobs in professional & business services declined 2.6% y/y to the lowest level since August. Retail trade hiring fell 1.0% y/y, but public sector jobs improved 2.1% y/y.
The total job separations rate was steady at 3.5%, down from its cycle high of 3.6%. The actual number of separations increased 2.1% y/y. Information services separations jumped 20.6% y/y while construction sector job separations increased 12.7% y/y. Factory sector separations rose 7.7% y/y. Education & health services separations rose 7.2% y/y. Leisure & hospitality separations were roughly unchanged y/y, but financial sector separations declined 11.1% y/y. Government sector job separations increased 8.8% y/y. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements.
The layoff & discharge rate fell to the record low of 1.1%. The private sector rate of 1.2% was also at the all-time low and compared to 0.6% in the public sector. Layoffs overall declined 8.5% y/y in the private sector, but were up 14.3% y/y in the public sector.
The JOLTS survey dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr '15 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Job Openings, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| Total (000s) | 5,788 | 5,670 | 5,608 | 3.7% | 9.7% | 28.7% | 4.6% |
| Hires, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 43.6 | 42.2 | 39.6 |
| Total (000s) | 5,092 | 5,290 | 5,510 | 0.4% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 3.5% |
| Layoffs & Discharges, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 14.9 | 14.7 | 14.7 |
| Total (000s) | 1,646 | 1,768 | 1,808 | -8.5% | 2.7% | 2.4% | -5.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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