Global| Feb 10 2015U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Reaches New High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job openings rate during December jumped to 3.5%, a record high. During all of 2014, the 3.5% rate was near the record reached in 2000. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a [...]
The job openings rate during December jumped to 3.5%, a record high. During all of 2014, the 3.5% rate was near the record reached in 2000. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. The actual number of job openings surged 28.5% y/y to 5.028 million, the highest level since 2001. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports these figures in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
The private-sector job openings rate gained to 3.7%, its highest level since February 2001 and up from the recession low of 1.7%. The rate in professional & business services jumped to 5.0% and the rate in leisure & hospitality gained slightly to 4.2% In health care & social services, it jumped to a cycle high of 4.3% while in trade, transportation & utilities it held at 3.2%, up from the recession low of 1.2%. The rate in the factory sector slipped to 2.4%, but was near the highest level since 2012. The construction rate improved to 2.3%. The job openings rate in the government sector increased to 2.3%, its highest level since April 2010 and up from the 2009 low of 1.1%.
The hires rate returned to the expansion high of 3.7%. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The private sector hires rate was at the 4.1% recovery high. In the construction sector, the rate surged to 6.4%, its highest since February 2013. Amongst leisure & hospitality firms, the rate dipped to 6.2% from its 6 year high of 6.2%. The rate in professional & business services improved slightly to 5.3%. The hiring rate in education & health services notched up to a 2.7% but in the factory sector it recovered to 2.2%, near the middle of the last year's range. In the government sector, the hiring rate improved to 1.5%, its highest the Census was taken in 2010.
The number of hires recovered 1.9% m/m but increased 12.5% y/y. Private sector hires increased 12.4% y/y, nearly the expansion high. Construction sector jobs rose more than one-half y/y. Leisure hospitality hiring jumped 16.0% y/y while health care & social services employment advanced 13.0% y/y. Factory sector jobs improved 7.1% y/y as professional & business services hiring increased 6.3% y/y. Government hiring rose 13.2% y/y.
The job separations rate rose to its expansion high of 3.5% and the actual number of separations increased 9.4% y/y. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The private sector separations rate recovered to a high of 3.9% while the government sector's rate rose to 1.4%. The layoff & discharge rate held at 1.2%, near the record low. The private sector layoff rate edged up m/m to 1.4% and the government's rate held at 0.5%.
The JOLTS survey dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec '13 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Job Openings, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.5 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.8 (y/y) | 3.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 |
| Total (000s) | 5,028 | 4,847 | 4,830 | 28.5% | 28.5% | 7.4% | 3.1% |
| Hires, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.3 (y/y) | 42.1 | 39.6 | 38.8 |
| Total (000s) | 5,148 | 5,054 | 5,101 | 12.5% | 7.6% | 3.3% | 4.2% |
| Layoffs & Discharges, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.2 (y/y) | 14.5 | 14.6 | 15.5 |
| Total (000s) | 1,726 | 1,655 | 1,757 | 1.4% | 0.4% | -4.6% | 1.2% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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