Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Jan 17 2014

U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Is Unchanged But Hires Improve

Summary

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the November job openings rate held m/m at 2.8%. That nevertheless was up from 2.7% twelve months earlier The job openings rate is the [...]


The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the November job openings rate held m/m at 2.8%. That nevertheless was up from 2.7% twelve months earlier The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. The actual number of job openings rose 5.6% y/y to 4.001 million.

The private-sector job openings rate notched up to 3.1%, its highest level of the recovery. The rate in leisure & hospitality businesses increased to 3.8%, the highest since May 2008. The rate in professional & business services slipped to 3.6%, but remained down from the 4.2% high early last year. In the health & social assistance sector, the job openings rate ticked up to 3.3%. The rate in manufacturing slipped to 2.4% and in construction it rose to 2.3%. Still lagging was the job openings rate in the government sector where it held at 1.7%, its lowest level since December.

The hires rate held m/m at 3.3%, still down from its expansion high of 3.4% in September. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The hires rate in the private sector fell to 3.6% from its September high of 3.8%. Amongst leisure & hospitality firms it slipped to 5.5%. In construction the hires rate fell to 5.0% and remained below the 6.5% rates common early in 2011. The hiring rate in retail trade edged up to 4.6% while in education & health services it held 2.5%. In the factory sector, the hiring rate increased m/m to 2.2% and remained improved from 1.7% in March. The government sector hires rate ticked up to 1.4%.

The number of hires gained 0.2% m/m in November and were 1.7% above last year. Private sector hires increased a modest 1.3% y/y but jobs in retail trade advanced 16.9% y/y. Hiring in leisure & hospitality grew 13.6% y/y while new employment gained 10.7% y/y in the factory sector. New hires in health services increased 3.1% y/y but hiring in professional & business services fell 6.0% y/y. Government sector hiring rose 3.2% y/y.

The job separations rate held at 3.1% during November but the actual number of separations rose 1.9% y/y. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The private sector separations rate ticked up to 3.5% but the government sector's rate slipped to 1.3%. The layoff & discharge rate held at 1.1% in November. That's versus a recession peak of 2.0% in early 2009. The private sector layoff rate held at a record low 1.2% while the government's rate slipped to 0.4%.

The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.

JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) Nov Oct Sep Nov'12 2012 2011 2010
Job Openings, Total
 Rate (%) 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.2
 Total (000s) 4,001 3,931 3,883 3,789 3,612 3,384 2,930
Hires, Total
 Rate (%) 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 38.9 37.7 37.4
 Total (000s) 4,494 4,484 4,632 4,420 51,946 49,644 48,637
Layoffs & Discharges, Total
 Rate (%) 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 15.4 15.4 16.8
 Total (000s) 1,461 1,504 1,756 1,705 20,670 20,320 21,747
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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