Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Dec 10 2013

U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Holds Steady But Hires Slip

Summary

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the October job openings rate held m/m at 2.8%. That nevertheless was up from 2.6% twelve months earlier The job openings rate is the [...]


The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the October job openings rate held m/m at 2.8%. That nevertheless was up from 2.6% twelve months earlier The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. The actual number of job openings rose 7.7% y/y to 3.925 million.

The private-sector job openings rate was steady at 3.0%. The rate in leisure & hospitality businesses increased to 3.8%, the highest since May 2008. The rate in professional & business services rose to 3.7%, but remained down from the 4.2% high early last year. In the health & social assistance sector, the job openings rate slipped to 3.2%. The rate in manufacturing ticked up to 2.3% and in construction it edged lower to 2.1%. Still lagging was the job openings rate in the government sector where it held at 1.7%, its lowest level since December.

The hires rate slipped to 3.3% from its expansion high of 3.4% in September. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The hires rate in the private sector slipped to 3.7% but amongst leisure & hospitality firms it edged up to 5.8%. In construction the hires rate rose to 5.3% but remained below the 6.5% rates common early in 2011. The hiring rate in retail trade edged up to 4.4% while in education & health services it held 2.6%. In the factory sector, the hiring rate slipped m/m to 2.0% but remained improved from 1.7% in March. The government sector hires rate ticked up to 1.4%.

The number of hires fell 2.7% m/m in October but were 5.2% above last year. Private sector hires increased 4.3% y/y. Hiring in leisure & hospitality grew 10.5% y/y while new hires in health services increased 8.8% y/y. Jobs in retail trade advanced 8.4% y/y. Hiring in professional & business services grew 1.0% y/y while new employment inched up 0.4% y/y in the factory sector. Government sector hiring rose 3.2% y/y.

The job separations rate declined to 3.1% during October as the actual number of separations increased 4.2%. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The private sector separations rate fell to 3.4% but the government sector's rate gained to 1.5%, a twelve month high. The layoff & discharge rate fell back to 1.1% in October. That's versus a recession peak of 2.0% in early 2009. The private sector layoff rate dropped sharply to 1.2% while the government's rate held at 0.5%.

The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.

JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) Oct Sep Aug Oct'12 2012 2011 2010
Job Openings, Total
 Rate (%) 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.2
 Total (000s) 3,925 3,883 3,844 3,646 3,612 3,384 2,930
Hires, Total
 Rate (%) 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.2 38.9 37.7 37.4
 Total (000s) 4,509 4,632 4,599 4,287 51,946 49,644 48,637
Layoffs & Discharges, Total
 Rate (%) 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 15.4 15.4 16.8
 Total (000s) 1,474 1,756 1,676 1,672 20,670 20,320 21,747
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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