Global| Jul 12 2016U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings Rate Backpedals, But Hires Rate Is Steady
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job openings rate declined to 3.7% during May from the record high of 3.9%. The private sector job openings rate fell to 3.9% from 4.2%. This rate compared to 2.4% in the public sector. The 4.8% rate in professional & business [...]
The job openings rate declined to 3.7% during May from the record high of 3.9%. The private sector job openings rate fell to 3.9% from 4.2%. This rate compared to 2.4% in the public sector. The 4.8% rate in professional & business services compared to 4.7% in leisure & hospitality. The factory sector's 2.8% was accompanied by 2.7% in construction. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports these figures in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
The hires rate in May held steady m/m at 3.5%, but that was the lowest level since August 2014. The private sector rate eased to 3.8%, also the lowest since 2014. The 6.4% rate in leisure & hospitality compared to 2.9% in education & health services. The hires rate of 5.0% in professional & business services was down from the December high of 5.9%. The public sector hires rate was stable at 1.6%. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment.
The actual number of job openings declined 5.9% (+2.1% y/y) after hitting a record 5.845 million in April. A 2.2% y/y rise in private sector openings was led by a 10.5% y/y increase in education & health services. Factory sector hiring rose 7.0% y/y, but professional & business hiring declined 10.0% y/y. Retail trade job openings increased 10.2% y/y and leisure & hospitality rose 6.0% y/y. Government sector job openings gained 1.5% y/y following gains of 7.6% and 39.8% in 2015 and 2014.
The number of hires declined 1.0% (-1.5% y/y) to 5.036 million in May, the fourth decline in five months. Hires grew 5.2% during all of last year and 8.2% in 2014. Private sector hiring declined 1.8% y/y versus peak 8.3% growth in 2014. Employment in professional & business services fell 5.5% y/y, retail employment was off 7.4% y/y and construction sector jobs declined 5.3% y/y. Offsetting these declines, jobs in education & health services improved 7.9% y/y. Factory sector hiring grew 6.0% y/y and leisure & hospitality jobs rose 3.9% y/y. The number of public sector jobs grew 3.6% y/y.
The total job separations rate eased to 3.4%, down from its cycle high of 3.6%. The actual number of separations increased 1.7% y/y. Factory sector separations rose 13.2% y/y while construction sector job separations increased 7.2% y/y. Leisure & hospitality separations increased 7.9 y/y, and education & health services separations rose 6.5% y/y. Working the other way, information services separations declined 16.2% y/y and financial sector separations eased 0.5% y/y. Government sector job separations increased 3.7% y/y. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements.
The layoff & discharge rate remained stable at 1.2%. The private sector rate of 1.3% was near the all-time low, and compared to 0.5% in the public sector. Layoffs overall declined 2.2% y/y in the private sector, and were unchanged y/y in the public sector.
The JOLTS survey dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | May | Apr | Mar | May '15 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Job Openings, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| Total (000s) | 5,500 | 5,845 | 5,670 | 2.1% | 9.7% | 28.7% | 4.6% |
| Hires, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 43.6 | 42.2 | 39.6 |
| Total (000s) | 5,036 | 5,085 | 5,290 | -1.5% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 3.5% |
| Layoffs & Discharges, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 14.9 | 14.7 | 14.7 |
| Total (000s) | 1,667 | 1,708 | 1,768 | -2.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | -5.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
