Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Sep 09 2014

U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings and Hires Rates Hold Steady

Summary

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the job openings rate during July held m/m at 3.3% following its jump from 2.8% at yearend 2013. The latest level was the highest since [...]


The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the job openings rate during July held m/m at 3.3% following its jump from 2.8% at yearend 2013. The latest  level was the highest since June 2007. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. The actual number of job openings rose 22.5% y/y to 4.673 million.

The private-sector job openings rate improved to 3.5% from a downwardly revised 3.4%. It was the highest level since June 2007 and up from the recession low of 1.7%. The rate in professional & business services remained at the ten-year high of 4.5%. Amongst leisure & hospitality firms, the rate fell to a still-strong 4.2%. In the health care & social assistance sector, the job openings rate held at 3.9% and remained well above the 2.9% averages in 2009-2010. The rate in manufacturing was steady at a firm 2.4% while in construction it slipped to 2.3%. The job openings rate in the government sector was steady at 2.2%, up from 1.3% to 1.7% averaged back to 2008.

The hires rate held at 3.5%, its recovery high. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment. The private sector hires rate was stable at 3.9%, a seven-year high. The construction hires rate jumped to 6.1% from its recent lows near 4.5%. Amongst leisure & hospitality firms it held at a modestly lower 5.8%. In professional & business services, it was stable at 5.2% and the hires rate in retail trade gained to 5.1%. In education & health services, the hires rate was stable at 2.5%. In the factory sector, the hires rate slipped to 2.1% and remained below the 2.5% high late in 2010. The government sector hires rate improved to a low 1.4%.

The number of hires improved 1.7% m/m and jumped 7.7% y/y. Private sector hires gained 7.6% y/y as new retail trade jobs surged 21.3% y/y and construction sector employment rebounded 19.2% y/y. Factory sector hiring improved 12.1% y/y while leisure & hospitality employment rose 8.6% y/y. Government sector hiring recovered 8.4% y/y and jobs in professional & business services increased 4.8% y/y. To the downside, hiring in education & health services industries slipped 0.4% y/y.

The job separations rate held at 3.3% and the actual number of separations increased 5.7% y/y. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The private sector separations rate inched up to 3.7%, its highest level since September 2013, while the government sector's rate fell to 1.2%, the lowest level since last summer. The layoff & discharge rate remained at 1.2% for the eighth strait month. The private sector layoff rate inched up m/m to 1.4% but the government's rate fell to 0.3%.

The JOLTS survey dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.    

JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) Jul Jun May Jul'13 2013 2012 2011
Job Openings, Total
 Rate (%) 3.3 3.3 3.2 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.5
 Total (000s) 4,673 4,675 4,577 3,816 3,914 3,646 3,538
Hires, Total
 Rate (%) 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.3 39.6 38.8 38.1
 Total (000s) 4,872 4,791 4,738 4,525 54,139 52,391 50,264
Layoffs & Discharges, Total
 Rate (%) 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 14.6 15.5 15.7
 Total (000s) 1,659 1,657 1,656 1,666 20,006 20,979 20,735
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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