Global| Aug 10 2016U.S. JOLTS: Job Openings and Hires Rates Edge Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The total job openings rate nudged higher to 3.8% during June following a May decline to 3.7%. The record high of 3.9% had been reached in April. The private sector job openings rate also improved to 4.0% from 3.9%, but remained below [...]
The total job openings rate nudged higher to 3.8% during June following a May decline to 3.7%. The record high of 3.9% had been reached in April. The private sector job openings rate also improved to 4.0% from 3.9%, but remained below the record high. These rates compared to 2.3% in the public sector which was higher than the 1.6% averaged in 2011. The 5.0% rate in professional & business services compared to 4.7% in leisure & hospitality. In education & health services the rate also averaged 4.7%. The factory sector's 3.0% rate was accompanied by 3.0% in construction. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports these figures in its Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
The total hires rate in June nudged higher m/m to 3.6%, but that was well below December's 3.8%. The private sector rate held steady at 3.9%, but was down from 4.2% in February. The 6.6% rate in leisure & hospitality compared to 2.8% in education & health services. The hires rate of 4.9% in professional & business services was down from the December high of 5.9%. A 2.3% rate in manufacturing compared to 4.2% in construction The public sector hires rate has been little changed at 1.6% since early 2015. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment.
The actual number of job openings rose 2.0% (8.8% y/y) following a 5.7% decline. An 8.2% y/y rise in private sector openings was led by a one-third y/y increase in manufacturing. That was followed by an 11.4% y/y increase in education & health services, but professional & business hiring declined 7.8% y/y. Retail trade job openings increased 10.3% y/y and leisure & hospitality rose 11.4% y/y. Government sector job openings strengthened 15.1% y/y following gains of 7.6% and 39.8% in 2015 and 2014.
The number of hires increased 1.7% (-0.3% y/y) to 5.131 million in June. That increase followed four consecutive months of decline. Hires grew 5.2% during all of last year and 8.2% in 2014. Private sector hiring declined 1.0% y/y versus peak 8.3% growth in 2014. Employment in professional & business services fell 4.9% y/y; retail employment was off 8.7% y/y and construction sector jobs declined 12.4% y/y. Offsetting these declines, jobs in leisure & hospitality increased 9.7% y/y; education & health services hiring improved 7.9% y/y and factory sector employment grew 5.6% y/y. The number of public sector jobs grew 3.6% y/y.
The total job separations rate eased to 3.4%, down from its cycle high of 3.6% in February. The actual number of separations eased 0.6% y/y. Leisure & hospitality separations increased 6.1% y/y, and education & health services separations rose 8.3% y/y. Factory sector separations nudged 0.7% higher y/y. Working the other way, construction sector job separations fell 13.1% y/y, information services separations declined 12.0% y/y and financial sector separations eased 4.3% y/y. Government sector job separations were little changed y/y. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements.
The layoff & discharge rate slipped to 1.1% from 1.2% and matched the record low. The private sector rate of 1.3% has been stable for three months near the all-time low of 1.2%. That compared to a lessened 0.4% in the public sector. Layoffs overall declined 7.2% y/y in the private sector, but were off 17.8% y/y in the public sector.
The JOLTS survey dates to December 2000 and the figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| JOLTS (Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey, SA) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun '15 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Job Openings, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| Total (000s) | 5,624 | 5,514 | 5,845 | 8.8% | 9.7% | 28.7% | 4.6% |
| Hires, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 43.6 | 42.2 | 39.6 |
| Total (000s) | 5,131 | 5,047 | 5,085 | -0.3% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 3.5% |
| Layoffs & Discharges, Total | |||||||
| Rate (%) | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 14.9 | 14.7 | 14.7 |
| Total (000s) | 1,643 | 1,701 | 1,708 | -7.9% | 2.7% | 2.4% | -5.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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