Global| Jun 05 2020U.S. Job Market Exhibits Modest Healing
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Payroll hiring turns positive. • Jobless rate slips as employment increases. • Earnings falter after strong gains. The labor market showed signs of life in May following extreme duress in April. Nonfarm payroll employment improved [...]
• Payroll hiring turns positive.
• Jobless rate slips as employment increases.
• Earnings falter after strong gains.
The labor market showed signs of life in May following extreme duress in April. Nonfarm payroll employment improved 2.509 million last month after falling 20.687 million, revised from -20,500 million. An 8.165 million fall had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Improvement was widespread amongst industries.
The unemployment rate fell to 13.3% and backed away from its postwar record of 14.7%. A rise to 19.8% had been expected. Employment in the household survey increased 3.839 million after falling 22.369 million while the labor force rose 1.746 million after declining 6.432 million. The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, eased to 21.2% from 22.8%. Nevertheless, the unemployment rate remained close to a monthly high not seen since late-1940, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Average hourly earnings in the private sector declined 1.0% (+6.7% y/y) following a 4.7% jump. A 1.1 % gain had been expected.
The employment & earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th of the month.
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
Firms Expect Working from Home to Triple from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is available here.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | May | Apr | Mar | May Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 2,509 | -20,687 | -1,373 | -11.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | -20,500 | -870 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 225 | -1,324 | -46 | -8.8 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Construction | 464 | -995 | -65 | -5.7 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.6 |
| Private Service-Producing | 2,425 | -27,351 | -1,237 | -13.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Government | -585 | -963 | -17 | -6.0 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.7 | 34.2 | 34.1 | 34.4 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.4 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | -1.0 | 4.7 | 0.6 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.6 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 13.3 | 14.7 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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