Global| Jul 06 2015U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Business during June matched expectations and improved slightly to 56.0 from 55.7 in May. Nevertheless, the latest figure remained nearly the lowest [...]
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Business during June matched expectations and improved slightly to 56.0 from 55.7 in May. Nevertheless, the latest figure remained nearly the lowest since April of last year.
Haver Analytics constructs a Composite Index using the nonmanufacturing ISM index and the ISM factory sector measure, released Wednesday. It notched up to 55.7 but also remained near the lowest level since last April. During the last ten years, there has been a 72% correlation between the index and the q/q change in real GDP.
The supplier delivery index improved last month, showing slightly slower delivery speeds, following its May collapse. The business activity and new orders series also improved modestly. The employment index deteriorated again to its lowest point since January. During the last ten years, there has been an 88% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in service plus construction payrolls.
The prices paid series back-pedaled moderately. Eighteen percent (NSA) of respondents paid higher prices. Ten percent paid lower prices.
The ISM data are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.
| ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun'14 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Diffusion Index | 56.0 | 55.7 | 57.8 | 56.3 | 56.3 | 54.6 | 54.6 |
| Business Activity | 61.5 | 59.5 | 61.6 | 59.2 | 59.7 | 56.7 | 57.6 |
| New Orders | 58.3 | 57.9 | 59.2 | 60.4 | 58.6 | 55.8 | 56.5 |
| Employment | 52.7 | 55.3 | 56.7 | 54.5 | 54.9 | 54.3 | 53.5 |
| Supplier Deliveries (NSA) | 51.5 | 50.0 | 53.5 | 51.0 | 51.8 | 51.7 | 50.6 |
| Prices Index | 53.0 | 55.9 | 50.1 | 60.1 | 56.8 | 55.6 | 59.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
