Global| Feb 01 2013U.S. ISM Factory Index Reaches Nine-Month High; Pricing Power Improves Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Activity is improving in the factory sector. The Institute for Supply Management reported that its January composite index of manufacturing activity rose to 53.1 from a revised 50.2 in December. The latest beat expectations for a [...]
Activity is improving in the factory sector. The Institute for Supply Management reported that its January composite index of manufacturing activity rose to 53.1 from a revised 50.2 in December. The latest beat expectations for a roughly unchanged 50.5 and earlier figures were revised due to new seasonal factors. Any figure above 50 indicates an increasing level of activity. During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the ISM index and the q/q change in real GDP.
Most of the component series improved last month including the employment reading which rose to 54.0. During the last ten years there has been an 88% correlation between the employment index and the m/m change in factory payrolls. The supplier delivery index slipped, indicating that delivery speeds quickened.
The price index rose further to 56.5, the highest level since September. Twenty three percent of firms raised prices while ten percent lowered them. During the last ten years there has been a 65% correlation between the index and the m/m change in the intermediate producer price index.
The figures from the Institute For Supply Management (ISM) are diffusion indexes and can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations data are in the AS1REPNA database.
| ISM Mfg | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 53.1 | 50.2 | 49.9 | 53.7 | 51.7 | 55.2 | 57.3 |
| New Orders | 53.3 | 49.7 | 51.1 | 56.5 | 52.9 | 56.4 | 59.2 |
| Production | 53.6 | 52.6 | 53.1 | 54.9 | 53.6 | 57.4 | 61.0 |
| Employment | 54.0 | 51.9 | 50.1 | 55.3 | 53.8 | 57.4 | 57.3 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 53.6 | 53.7 | 50.1 | 52.2 | 50.0 | 54.7 | 58.1 |
| Inventories | 51.0 | 43.0 | 45.0 | 49.5 | 48.2 | 50.1 | 50.8 |
| Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 56.5 | 55.5 | 52.5 | 55.5 | 53.2 | 65.2 | 68.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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