Global| Jan 12 2007U.S. Inventory Accumulation Up A Bit
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories rose 0.4% in November following a downwardly revised 0.2% October gain. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% rise and over the last three months the 0.3% average increase was the slowest since [...]
Total business inventories rose 0.4% in November following a downwardly revised 0.2% October gain. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% rise and over the last three months the 0.3% average increase was the slowest since September of last year.
During the last ten years there has been a 57% correlation between the y/y change in business inventories and the change in factory sector industrial production. Using quarterly figures, there has been an 84% correlation between the change in real private nonfarm inventories and production.
Business sales rose 0.5% (4.0% y/y), the first increase in three months. Wholesale sales led the gain with a 1.0% (7.95 y/y) pop and retail sales rose 0.6% (4.3% y/y). Factory shipments ticked up 0.1% (0.7% y/y). As a result the inventory to sales ratio was stable at 1.30 for the third month.
Retail inventories fell for the third straight month but excluding autos they rose 0.3%. General merchandise inventories rose 0.2% (2.9% y/y) and have been accumulating strongly since May. Clothing store inventories surged 1.6% (9.7% y/y), the third month of strong gain. Furniture inventories fell for the second month with a 0.2% decline (+4.3% y/y).
| Business Inventories | November | October | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.4% | 0.2% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 7.6% | -1.0% |
| Retail | -0.3% | -0.2% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 6.7% | 3.8% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.3% | 0.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 1.9% |
| Wholesale | 1.3% | 0.4% | 10.1% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 1.8% |
| Manufacturing | 0.2% | 0.3% | 7.1% | 4.0% | 6.9% | -7.4% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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