Global| Sep 15 2004U.S. Inventory Accumulation Raised Output
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories rose 0.9% in July, marking the eleventh consecutive month of accumulation. Consensus expectations were for a 0.7% increase. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the y/y change [...]
Total business inventories rose 0.9% in July, marking the eleventh consecutive month of accumulation. Consensus expectations were for a 0.7% increase. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the y/y change in inventories and the change in factory sector industrial production.
Retail inventories rose 0.6%, half the rate of accumulation in June. Higher auto inventories accounted for all of the gain with a 1.8% (12.4% y/y) rise. Non-auto inventories actually fell slightly following five months of moderate accumulation. Apparel (-0.1% y/y) & general merchandise (+3.6% y/y) accounted for the July drop.
Wholesale inventories jumped 1.3%, the third consecutive strong monthly increase. During the last ten years there has been a 62% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
Overall business sales rose 0.6% (+9.9% y/y).
The ratio of inventories-to-sales rose to 1.32 but remained below the 1.37 averaged last year.
| Business Inventories | July | June | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.9% | 1.1% | 6.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | -4.5% |
| Retail | 0.6% | 1.2% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | -2.8% |
| Retail excl. Autos | -0.0% | 0.5% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | -1.1% |
| Wholesale | 1.3% | 1.1% | 8.6% | 2.2% | 0.4% | -4.5% |
| Manufacturing | 0.8% | 1.0% | 3.9% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -6.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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