Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Aug 13 2007

U.S. Inventory Accumulation Continued

Summary

Total business inventories in June rose 0.4% following the unrevised 0.5% increase the month prior. Together, the increases raised the three month growth accumulation rate to 5.3%, its fastest since last Autumn. The June increase [...]


Total business inventories in June rose 0.4% following the unrevised 0.5% increase the month prior. Together, the increases raised the three month growth accumulation rate to 5.3%, its fastest since last Autumn. The June increase exceeded Consensus expectations for a 0.3% one month rise.

Retail inventories rose 0.5% after the May gain of 0.7%. Auto inventories led the June gain and jumped 1.0% after moderate increases during the prior three months that were upwardly revised. General merchandise inventories increased 0.2% (6.5% y/y), half the May gain of 0.4% but clothing store inventories fell 0.2% (+6.7% y/y) after a 0.4% May gain that was revised down. Furniture inventories reversed the prior month's decline with a 0.6% (0.2% y/y) rise.

Business sales fell 0.3% (+3.3% y/y) as retail sales slumped 0.9& after the prior month's 1.7% surge. Less autos, retail sales fell 0.2% following the 1.7% jump during May. Factory shipments fell 0.6% (-0.9% y/y) but wholesale sales increased 0.6% (8.1% y/y) with the strength in U.S. imports. During the last ten years there has been an 87% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale sales and the change in merchandise imports.

The inventory to sales ratio ticked up, off its low level during the prior month.

Business Inventories June May Y/Y 2006 2005 2004
Total 0.4% 0.5% 3.6% 5.9% 6.2% 7.9%
  Retail 0.5% 0.7% 1.3% 3.2% 2.8% 6.8%
    Retail excl. Autos 0.2% 0.7% 4.0% 4.5% 4.5% 7.2%
  Wholesale 0.5% 0.5% 6.3% 8.6% 7.4% 9.7%
  Manufacturing 0.3% 0.4% 3.7% 6.4% 7.9% 7.7%
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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