Global| Mar 15 2005U.S. Inventories Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total business inventories jumped 0.9% in January following an unrevised 0.2% December rise. The pace of inventory accumulation has accelerated markedly since 2002 but has not kept pace with the improvement in sales growth. [...]
Total business inventories jumped 0.9% in January following an unrevised 0.2% December rise. The pace of inventory accumulation has accelerated markedly since 2002 but has not kept pace with the improvement in sales growth. Consequently the ratio of inventories-to-sales fell through last year and in January remained at the record low.
Inventory accumulation was strongest in January at the factory level where a 1.3% gain was the largest monthly increase since 1988.
Wholesale inventories jumped 1.1%. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the y/y change in wholesale inventories and the change in imports of merchandise.
Retail inventories rose 0.4% in January following a 0.3% December increase. Accumulation of non-auto retail inventories, however, again was quite strong up 0.8% led by a 19.8% y/y gain in building materials and a 7.8% y/y rise in furniture & electronics.
Overall business sales jumped 0.8% (+11.1% y/y).
| Business Inventories | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.9% | 0.2% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 1.9% | 1.5% |
| Retail | 0.4% | 0.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% |
| Retail excl. Autos | 0.8% | 1.1% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 2.6% |
| Wholesale | 1.1% | 0.4% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Manufacturing | 1.3% | 0.1% | 8.5% | 7.5% | -1.3% | -1.8% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
