Global| Jul 12 2006U.S. Int'l Trade Deficit Deepened Less Than Expected
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in May again deepened less than expected. The deficit of $63.8B compared to a little revised April gap of $63.3B and Consensus expectations for $64.9B. During the first five months of 2006 the foreign [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in May again deepened less than expected. The deficit of $63.8B compared to a little revised April gap of $63.3B and Consensus expectations for $64.9B.
During the first five months of 2006 the foreign trade deficit averaged $63.6B versus a $56.4B deficit averaged during the first five months of 2005.
Total exports in May jumped 2.4% after a little revised April slip. A strong 5.2% pop in nonauto consumer goods exports (10.9% y/y) more than recovered the prior month's decline. Capital goods exports also were strong and posted a 2.4% (15.3% y/y) surge following three months of sideways movement. Exports of advanced technology products rose 0.9% (NSA, 16.6% y/y) while exports of industrial supplies & materials rose 3.4% (16.5% y/y).
Imports rose 1.9% during May as petroleum imports surged 16.9% (49.8% y/y). Adjusted for a higher prices, including an 8.7% (43.4% y/y) spike in crude oil to $61.74 per bbl., constant dollar petroleum imports surged 8.2% (3.3% y/y). Crude oil prices fell in June but have since risen to record highs.
Imports of capital goods increased 0.5% (10.9% y/y) reflecting a 6.3% rise in imports of advanced technology products (NSA, 8.8% y/y) and a 0.1% (+3.9% y/y) slip in imports of nonauto consumer goods.
The US deficit in goods trade with China deepened to $17.7B ($201.6B for 2005) but the trade deficit with Japan improved to $7.1B ($82.7B in 2005). The trade deficit with the Asian NICs more than doubled to $1.7B ($15.9B in 2005) and the deficit with the European Union deepened to $10.8B ($122.4B in 2005).
The Mid-Session Review of the U.S. Government Budget for FY 2007 is available here.
| Foreign Trade | May | April | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Deficit | $63.8B | $63.3B | $56.6B (5/05) | $716.7B | $611.3B | $494.9B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | 2.4% | -0.0% | 12.6% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 4.2% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | 1.8% | 0.8% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 16.7% | 8.3% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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