Global| Feb 26 2015U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Rebound to Six-Week High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 313,000 during the week ended February 21 from 282,000 in the prior week, revised from 283,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims notched up to 294,500, the highest level [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims increased to 313,000 during the week ended February 21 from 282,000 in the prior week, revised from 283,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims notched up to 294,500, the highest level in four weeks. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 289,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended February 21 declined to 2.401 million following a rebound to 2.422 million in the prior week, revised from 2.425 million. The four-week moving average ticked up to 2.399 million but still roughly equaled the earlier low.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.8% for the seventh straight week.
By state, in the week ended February 7 the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with Florida (0.90%), South Carolina (1.07%), Virginia (1.09%), Louisiana (1.14%), Nebraska (1.17%) and Texas (1.31%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Michigan (2.65%), Maine (2.64%), California (2.95%), Massachusetts (3.20%), Pennsylvania (3.25%) and Connecticut (3.43%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Lessons for Forecasting Unemployment in the U.S.: Use Flow Rates, Mind the Trend from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/21/15 | 02/14/15 | 02/07/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 313 | 282 | 304 | -10.8 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,401 | 2,422 | -18.4 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 (02/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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