Global| Nov 29 2007U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Surged
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged much more than expectations to the highest level since early this year. The 23,000 rise last week to 352,000 followed a little revised 12,000 decline during the week prior. The early [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance surged much more than expectations to the highest level since early this year. The 23,000 rise last week to 352,000 followed a little revised 12,000 decline during the week prior. The early timing of this year's Thanksgiving holiday may have affected the latest figure.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four week moving average of initial claims rose to 335,250 (3.3% y/y) and that was up 3.5% from the prior four weeks.
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Nov. 17 were in Texas (+1,097), Kentucky (+797), Idaho (+341), Arkansas (+219), and Wisconsin (+209), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-6,493), California (-5,905), Puerto Rico (-3,882), New Jersey (-3,011), and Virginia (-1,542).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance surged 112,000 from the prior week, the largest one week increase since early this year, and it followed modest decline in the prior three weeks.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment rose slightly to 2.0% from 1.9% during the prior week.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 11/24/07 | 11/17/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 352 | 329 | 0.9% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,665 | 8.2% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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