Global| Dec 01 2016U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Surge to Five-Month High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for jobless insurance jumped to 268,000 (-2.2% y/y) during the week ended November 26 from an unrevised 251,000 in the prior week. Expectations had been for 250,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was [...]
Initial claims for jobless insurance jumped to 268,000 (-2.2% y/y) during the week ended November 26 from an unrevised 251,000 in the prior week. Expectations had been for 250,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the highest level of claims since the end of June. The four week moving average of claims rose slightly to 251,500. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased to 2.081 million (-5.0% y/y) from 2.043 million. It was the highest number of claimants since the second week of September. The four week moving average of claimants rose modestly to 2.038 million.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.5% for a second week.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continue to vary. For the week ended November 12, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.38%), Nebraska (0.44%), Florida (0.56%), North Carolina (0.58%), Indiana (0.67%) and Georgia (0.73%). The highest rates were found in Illinois (1.65%), Massachusetts (1.73%), Pennsylvania (1.96%), Connecticut (2.09%), New Jersey (2.39%) and Alaska (3.92%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 11/26/16 | 11/19/16 | 11/12/16 | Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 268 | 251 | 233 | -2.2 | 277 | 307 | 342 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,081 | 2,043 | -5.0 | 2,268 | 2,607 | 2,978 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.5 | 1.5 |
1.6 |
1.7 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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