Global| Feb 07 2008U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slipped
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for jobless insurance slipped 22,000 last week to 356,000. The decline pulled back only a piece of the prior week's upwardly revised 72,000 surge. The latest remained near the highest level since October of 2005. The [...]
Initial claims for jobless insurance slipped 22,000 last week to 356,000. The decline pulled back only a piece of the prior week's upwardly revised 72,000 surge. The latest remained near the highest level since October of 2005.
The four-week moving average of initial claims, a measure which smoothes out most of the series' w/w volatility, rose again to 335,000 (+7.5% y/y).
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance jumped 75,000 following a 41,000 increase during the week prior. That was revised down just slightly. The figure provides some indication of workers' ability to find employment but here again difficulties of seasonal adjustment this time of year are great.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment rose w/w back to 2.1%.
Business Volatility, Job Destruction and Unemployment from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
A Minimum Wager from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 02/02/08 | 01/26/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 356 | 378 | 13.4% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,785 | 12.8% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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