Global| May 23 2019U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Slip
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market remains on a firm footing. Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased 1,000 to 211,000 (-7.6% y/y) during the week ended May 18 from an unrevised 212,000 in the previous week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey [...]
The labor market remains on a firm footing. Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased 1,000 to 211,000 (-7.6% y/y) during the week ended May 18 from an unrevised 212,000 in the previous week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 initial claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 220,250 and reversed the increase to 225,000 during the prior week.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey week for May nonfarm payrolls. Claims rose 18,000 (9.3%) from the April survey period. During the last 20 years, there has been a 73% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 12,000 to 1.676 million (-4.2% y/y) in the week ending May 11 from 1.664 million in the prior week, revised from 1.660 million. The four-week moving average of claimants increased to 1.674 million, the highest level in four weeks.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at the record low of 1.2%, where it's been for twelve months. The series dates back to 1970.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending May 4, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.29%), Nebraska (0.32%), Florida (0.40%), North Carolina (0.43%) and Indiana (0.45%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.55%), Connecticut (1.75%), California ( 1.94%), New Jersey (1.97%), and Alaska (2.38%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 0.90% in Texas, 1.25% in New York and 1.47% in Illinois. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 05/18/19 | 05/11/19 | 05/04/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 211 | 212 | 228 | -7.6 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,676 | 1,664 | -4.2 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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