Global| Jan 23 2020U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise; Total Claimant Level Falls
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 6,000 to 211,000 during the week ended January 18. Claims were unchanged y/y. The previous week's figure was revised to 205,000, from 204,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased 6,000 to 211,000 during the week ended January 18. Claims were unchanged y/y. The previous week's figure was revised to 205,000, from 204,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 212,000 initial claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 213,250, the lowest level since late September.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey week for January nonfarm payrolls. Claims fell 24,000 (-10.2%) from the August period. During the last 20 years, there has been a 71% correlation between the level of initial claims and the y/y change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended January 11 declined 37,000 to 1.731 million (+1.4% y/y) from the prior week's 1.768 million, revised modestly from 1.767 million. The four-week moving average of claimants rose to 1.758 million, the highest level since May 2018.
The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.2%, where it has been since mid-November.
Insured unemployment rates continued to vary widely by state. During the week ending January 4, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.41%), North Carolina (0.48%), Nebraska (0.59%), Virginia (0.63%) and Arizona (0.64%). The highest rates were in Montana (2.59%), Rhode Island (2.60%), Connecticut (2.87%), New Jersey (3.00%) and Alaska (3.03%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 1.15% in Texas, 1.96% in New York and 2.06% in California. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims dating back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 01/18/20 | 01/11/20 | 01/04/20 | Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 211 | 205 | 214 | 0.0 | 218 | 220 | 244 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,731 | 1,768 | 1.4 | 1,700 | 1,756 | 1,961 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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