Global| Jan 04 2018U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 250,000 (0.4% y/y) during the week ended December 30 following 247,000 claims in the week prior, revised from 247,000. Expectations had been for 239,000 claims in the Action [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 250,000 (0.4% y/y) during the week ended December 30 following 247,000 claims in the week prior, revised from 247,000. Expectations had been for 239,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the highest level of initial claims since the second week of November. The four-week moving average rose to 241,750. In all of last year initial claims declined to 245,000, down from 574,000 at the 2009 peak. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ended December 23, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.914 million (-7.9% y/y) from 1.951million in the week prior. The four-week moving average of claimants held steady at1.923 million, remaining near the lowest level since January 1974.
The insured unemployment rate was unchanged at 1.4% and remained near the record low of 1.3%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended December 22, Florida (0.50%), North Carolina (0.51%), Nebraska (0.61%), South Dakota (0.63%), Georgia (0.67%) and Virginia (0.68%) were at the low end of the range. At the high end were Pennsylvania (2.07%), Montana (2.16%), California (2.11%), Connecticut (2.24%), New Jersey (2.43%) and Alaska (3.88%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 12/30/17 | 12/23/17 | 12/16/17 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 250 | 247 | 225 | 0.4 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,914 | 1,951 | -7.9 | -- | 2,136 | 2,267 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.4 | 1.4 |
1.5 |
-- | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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