Global| Oct 09 2014U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Remain Near Eight-Year Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were roughly stable during the week ended October 4 at 287,000 (-20.7% y/y). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a rebound to 295,000 claims in the latest week. The four-week moving [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were roughly stable during the week ended October 4 at 287,000 (-20.7% y/y). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a rebound to 295,000 claims in the latest week. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 287,750, its lowest level since early-2006. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended September 27 fell to 2.381 million (-18.2% y/y), reaching the lowest level since May 2006. The four-week moving average fell to 2.414 million. The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.8% for the fourth week, also the lowest level also since 2007.
By state, in the week ended September 20, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with North & South Dakota (0.27%), Nebraska (0.65%), Indiana (0.83%), Virginia (0.89%) and Ohio (1.05%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (2.02%), Pennsylvania (2.16%), Nevada (2.31%), Connecticut (2.38%), California (2.45%) and New Jersey (2.71%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/04/14 | 09/27/14 | 09/20/14 | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 287 | 288 | 295 | -20.7 | 343 | 375 | 409 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,381 | 2,402 | -18.2 | 2,977 | 3,319 | 3,742 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 (9/13) |
2.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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