Global| May 07 2015U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Remain Near 2000 Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market remains on solid ground. In the week ended May 2nd, initial claims for jobless insurance increased to 265,000 from an unrevised 262,000, the lowest levels in fifteen years. The four week moving average declined to [...]
The job market remains on solid ground. In the week ended May 2nd, initial claims for jobless insurance increased to 265,000 from an unrevised 262,000, the lowest levels in fifteen years. The four week moving average declined to 279,500. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 279,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.7% in the week ended April 25 for the sixth straight week, its lowest level since November 2000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to 2.228 million (-17.0% y/y) in the latest week. The four-week moving average fell to 2.272 million, the lowest level since December 2000.
By state, in the week ended April 18 the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.41%), Indiana (0.90%), Tennessee (0.93%), New Hampshire (0.99%), Alabama (1.28%) and Texas (1.50%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were New York (1.99%), Montana (2.00%), Massachusetts (2.32%), Pennsylvania (2.49%), California (2.65%) and New Jersey (2.81%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/02/15 | 04/25/15 | 04/18/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 265 | 262 | 296 | -18.0 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,228 | 2,256 | -17.0 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2.1 (04/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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