Global| Jan 05 2017U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Near 1973 Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply in the final week of December to 235,000 from 263,000 in the week ended December 24, revised from 265,000. The latest level was the lowest since November 1973. Expectations in the [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply in the final week of December to 235,000 from 263,000 in the week ended December 24, revised from 265,000. The latest level was the lowest since November 1973. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey called for 262,000 claims. The four-week moving average of claims declined to 256,750 and has been fairly steady since September.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased to 2.112 million (-5.1% y/y) in the week of December 24 from 2.096 million. The four-week moving average of claimants increased to 2.067 million and was up slightly from the prior two months.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.5%, which is also the average since September. The record low of this 45-year-old series was 1.4% in the week ended November 5.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continue to vary widely. For the week ended December 17, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.52%), North Carolina (0.60%), Tennessee (0.67%), Nebraska (0.67%), Virginia (0.70%) and South Dakota (0.80%). The highest rates were found in Pennsylvania (2.24%), California (2.25%), Connecticut (2.31%), New Jersey (2.53%), Montana (2.66%) and Alaska (4.22%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 12/31/16 | 12/24/16 | 12/17/16 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 235 | 263 | 275 | -15.2 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,112 | 2,096 | -5.1 | -- | 2,268 | 2,607 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.5 | 1.5 |
1.6 |
-- | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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