Global| Jun 04 2015U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Meander Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance claims fell to 276,000 during the week ended May 30 following a rise to 284,000 in the prior week, initially reported as 282,000. The four week moving average rose to 274,750, the highest [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance claims fell to 276,000 during the week ended May 30 following a rise to 284,000 in the prior week, initially reported as 282,000. The four week moving average rose to 274,750, the highest level since early in the month. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 280,000 claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
By state, in the week ended May 16 the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with Virginia (0.81%), Georgia (0.93%), Kansas (1.12%), Idaho (1.24%), Michigan (1.29%) and Texas (1.53%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Maryland (1.59%), Massachusetts (1.98%), Nevada (2.17%), Pennsylvania (2.20%), California (2.42%) and New Jersey (2.47%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
The insured rate of unemployment slipped back to 1.6% in the week ended May 23, the lowest point since November 2000.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance declined to 2.196 million (-16.0% y/y) in the latest week. The four-week moving average fell to 2.214 million, the lowest level since November 2000.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/30/15 | 05/23/15 | 05/16/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 276 | 284 | 275 | -12.9 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,196 | 2,226 | -16.0 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 (05/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
