Global| Dec 06 2007U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Highest Since 2005
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Last week, initial claims for jobless insurance retraced most of the prior period's surge. The 15,000 worker decline to 338,000 followed a little revised increase of 24,000. The four week moving average of initial claims, a measure [...]
Last week, initial claims for jobless insurance retraced most of the prior period's surge. The 15,000 worker decline to 338,000 followed a little revised increase of 24,000.
The four week moving average of initial claims, a measure which smoothes out most of the series' w/w volatility, rose to 340,250 (4.0% y/y). That was the highest level since 2005.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last six years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
By state, some of the largest increases in the four week average level of claims were in New Jersey, California, & Indiana, each to or near to the highest level since 2003. Other states with large increases recently were Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
These detailed claims figures by state are in Haver's Regional Weekly database.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 59,000 after the 104,000 surge during the prior week. That gain was revised down only slightly from the initial report.
The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.0% after the prior week's increase.
The 'Great Moderation' in Output and Employment Volatility: An Update from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/01/07 | 11/24/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 338 | 353 | 4.6% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,559 | 4.6% | 2,459 | 2,662 | 2,924 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
