Global| Aug 23 2007U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fell Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell slightly last week, back to the level initially reported for the prior period. Claims for the week ending 8/18 fell to 322,000 from 324,000 during the week ended 8/11. Consensus [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell slightly last week, back to the level initially reported for the prior period. Claims for the week ending 8/18 fell to 322,000 from 324,000 during the week ended 8/11. Consensus expectations were for 320,000 claims in the latest week.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The latest figure is for the survey period for nonfarm payrolls due for release on September 7th. Claims rose 6.3% from the July period. A 7.1% decline in July claims was associated with the below average 92,000 increase in payrolls.
The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 317,750 (0.3% y/y), its highest level since early July.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 16,000 after a downwardly revised 6,000 increase during the prior week. The continuing claims numbers lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.9%.
The Minimum Wage and the Labor Market from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 08/18/07 | 08/11/07 | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 322 | 324 | 1.6% | 313 | 331 | 343 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,572 | 3.9% | 2,545 | 3.3% | 2,459 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
