Global| May 03 2012U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Fall Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market picture brightened significantly last week. Initial unemployment insurance claims fell sharply to 365,000 from an upwardly revised 392,000 during the prior week, earlier reported as 388,000. The latest figure reversed [...]
The job market picture brightened significantly last week. Initial unemployment insurance claims fell sharply to 365,000 from an upwardly revised 392,000 during the prior week, earlier reported as 388,000. The latest figure reversed all of the gains during the prior three weeks. Nevertheless, the four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 383,500, its highest since early December. The latest weekly number compared to Consensus expectations for 380,000 claims.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 3.276M during the week of April 21. and reversed the gains during the prior two weeks. The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.6% for the sixth straight week, the lowest since August 2008. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of April 14, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients fell to 6.597M (-18.3% y/y), the lowest level since November.
By state, the insured unemployment rate varied greatly with Virginia (1.4%), Texas (1.6%), Florida (1.8%), Louisiana (1.8%), Tennessee (1.8%), Indiana (2.0%) and Arizona (2.3%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were rates in Massachusetts (3.1%), Michigan (3.2%), New York (3.3%), Connecticut (3.5%), California (3.8% ), New Jersey (3.9%), Pennsylvania (3.9%) and Alaska (5.6%).
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Action Economics consensus estimates are in AS1REPNA.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 04/28/12 | 04/21/12 | 04/14/12 | Y/Y% | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 365 | 392 | 389 | -21.3 | 409 | 459 | 574 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,276 | 3,329 | -13.0 | 3,745 | 4,544 | 5,807 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.0 (4/11) |
3.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 6.597M | -17.7 | 7.750M | 9.850M | 9.163M |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
