Global| Dec 18 2014U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Edge Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance during the week ended December 13 fell to 289,000 (-21.5% y/y) after falling to a little-revised 295,000 in the prior week. It was the lowest level of claims in six weeks. The four-week moving [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance during the week ended December 13 fell to 289,000 (-21.5% y/y) after falling to a little-revised 295,000 in the prior week. It was the lowest level of claims in six weeks. The four-week moving average of initial claims notched lower w/w to 298,750 but was up from 279,000 at the end of October. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 293,000 claims in the latest week.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey period for December nonfarm payrolls. Claims fell 3,000 (1.0%) from the November period. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended December 6 fell to 2.373 million (-17.8% y/y) from 2.520 million. The four-week moving average edged up to 2.397 million, the highest level since early-October.
The insured rate of unemployment slipped back to 1.8% where it had been since early-September.
By state, in the week ended November 29, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.70%), Tennessee (1.05%), Indiana (1.06%), Florida (1.09%), South Carolina (1.12%) and Georgia (1.31%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (2.42%), West Virginia (2.53%), Connecticut (2.71%), California (2.95%), New Jersey (3.18%) and Alaska (4.67%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/13/14 | 12/06/14 | 11/29/14 | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 289 | 295 | 297 | -21.5 | 343 | 375 | 409 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,373 | 2,520 | -17.8 | 2,977 | 3,319 | 3,742 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 (12/13) |
2.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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