Global| Jan 18 2018U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline to 1973 Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 220,000 (+2.0% y/y) during the week ended January 13 following an unrevised 261,000 claims in the week prior. The latest reading was the lowest in 45 years. Expectations had been [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 220,000 (+2.0% y/y) during the week ended January 13 following an unrevised 261,000 claims in the week prior. The latest reading was the lowest in 45 years. Expectations had been for a decline to 250,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average fell to 244,500.
The latest initial claims figure covers the survey week for January nonfarm payrolls. There was a 10.2% decline in claims versus the December period. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ended January 6, continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased to 1.952 million (-4.7% y/y), the highest level since mid-November. The four-week moving average of claimants rose to 1.921 million, but remained near the lowest level since January 1974.
The insured unemployment rate inched higher to 1.4%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended January 6, North Carolina (0.51%), Indiana (0.69%), South Dakota (0.77%), Nebraska (0.91%), Virginia (0.75%) and Georgia (1.06%) were at the low end of the range. At the high end were California (2.10%), Pennsylvania (2.46%), Montana (2.65%), Connecticut (2.78%), New Jersey (2.89%) and Alaska (4.01%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 01/13/18 | 01/06/18 | 12/30/17 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 220 | 261 | 250 | 2.0 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,952 | 1,876 | -4.7 | 1,962 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.4 | 1.3 |
1.5 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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