Global| Apr 04 2019U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline to 1969 Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The labor market remains strong. Initial unemployment insurance claims declined to 202,000 (-9.2% y/y) during the week ended March 30 from 212,000 in the prior week, revised from 211,000. It was the lowest level of claims since the [...]
The labor market remains strong. Initial unemployment insurance claims declined to 202,000 (-9.2% y/y) during the week ended March 30 from 212,000 in the prior week, revised from 211,000. It was the lowest level of claims since the first week of December 1969. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 213,500, the lowest point since October. During the last 20 years, there has been a 70% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 1.717 million (-5.2% y/y) in the week ending March 23, from a little-revised 1.755 million. It was the lowest level since early-January. The four-week moving average of claimants eased to 1.743 million, a five-week low.
The insured unemployment rate held steady at the record low 1.2%.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending March 16, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.41%), North Carolina (0.47%), Tennessee (0.55%), Georgia (0.56%) and Virginia (0.59%). The highest rates were in Montana (2.40%), Rhode Island (2.45%), Connecticut (2.49%), New Jersey (2.62%), and Alaska (3.03%). Among other large states, the rate was 0.99% in Texas, 1.65% in New York, 2.25% in Pennsylvania and 2.27% in California. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 03/30/19 | 03/23/19 | 03/16/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 202 | 212 | 216 | -9.2 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,717 | 1,755 | -5.2 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.3 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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