Global| Apr 26 2018U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 209,000 (-17.1% y/y) from a revised 233,000 in the prior week, initially reported as 232,000. Expectations had been for 231,000 initial claims in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 209,000 (-17.1% y/y) from a revised 233,000 in the prior week, initially reported as 232,000. Expectations had been for 231,000 initial claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average eased to 229,250 from 230,000. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
In the week ended April 14, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.837 million (-7.4% y/y) from 1.866 million. It was the lowest level since December 1973. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.850 million from 1.860 million.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at the record low of 1.3%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended April 7, the lowest rates of unemployment were Florida (0.45%), North Carolina (0.47%), Indiana (0.58%), Virginia (0.62%), Georgia (0.63%) and Mississippi (0.67%). The highest rates were in Rhode Island (2.01%), Montana (2.04%), California (2.16%), Connecticut (2.43%), New Jersey (2.67%) and Alaska (3.09%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 04/21/18 | 04/14/18 | 04/07/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 209 | 233 | 233 | -17.1 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,837 | 1,866 | -7.4 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.3 | 1.3 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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