Global| Feb 09 2017U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 234,000 (-9.7% y/y) during the week ended February 4 from an unrevised 246,000 claims in the prior week. It was the lowest level in twelve weeks. The four-week moving average of claims [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 234,000 (-9.7% y/y) during the week ended February 4 from an unrevised 246,000 claims in the prior week. It was the lowest level in twelve weeks. The four-week moving average of claims fell to 244,250, the lowest level since October 1973. Expectations had been for 249,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased to 2.078 million (-7.0% y/y) in the week of January 28 from 2.063 million. The four-week moving average of claimants eased to 2.076 million.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.5%, which has been the average since September.
Insured rates of unemployment across states continue to vary widely. For the week ended January 21, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.56%), North Carolina (0.67%), Tennessee (0.81%), Virginia (0.83%), South Dakota (0.94%) and Nebraska (0.98%). The highest rates were found in California (2.64%), Pennsylvania (2.69%), Connecticut (3.09%), New Jersey (3.10%), Montana (3.13%) and Alaska (4.78%). The state data are not seasonally adjusted.
New Year Brings Economic Promises and Challenges from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 02/04/17 | 01/28/17 | 01/21/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 234 | 246 | 260 | -9.7 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,078 | 2,063 | -7.0 | 2,136 | 2,267 | 2,599 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.5 | 1.5 |
1.6 |
1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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