Global| Dec 13 2018U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 206,000 (-7.6% y/y) during the week ended December 8 from 233,000 during the prior week, revised from 231,000. Initial claims were near the lowest level since 1969. The Action [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 206,000 (-7.6% y/y) during the week ended December 8 from 233,000 during the prior week, revised from 231,000. Initial claims were near the lowest level since 1969. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 227,000 initial claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims eased to 224,750. During the last ten years there has been a 73% between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.661 million (-11.7% y/y) in the week ending December 1, from a little-revised 1.636 million in the prior week. The four-week moving average of continuing claims slipped to 1.666 million.
The insured unemployment rate ticked higher to 1.2% but remained near the record low. The insured unemployment figures date back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending November 24, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.35%), Nebraska (0.41%), North Carolina (0.44%), Indiana (0.49%) and Florida (0.51%). The highest rates were in Illinois (1.53%), Pennsylvania (1.71%), Connecticut (1.82%), California (1.85%), New Jersey (2.16%) and Alaska (3.13%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 0.91% in Ohio, 1.01% in Texas, 1.50% in New York, 0.69% in Georgia and 0.54% in Virginia. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 12/08/18 | 12/01/18 | 11/24/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 206 | 233 | 235 | -7.6 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,661 | 1,636 | -11.7 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.1 |
1.3 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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