Global| Dec 17 2009U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Unexpectedly Rise To Highest In One Month
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Recent steadying in the job market stalled last week. The Labor Department indicated that initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 480,000 from a little-revised 473,000 during the prior week. As a result, claims reached the [...]
Recent
steadying in the job market stalled last week. The Labor Department
indicated that initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to
480,000 from a little-revised 473,000 during the prior week. As a
result, claims reached the highest level in four weeks but remained
down from the recession peak of 674,000 hit in March. The four-week
moving average of claims slipped to 467,500 and the latest weekly
figure was higher than Consensus expectations for a decline to 465,000
claims.
Initial
claims during the latest week cover the survey period
for November nonfarm payrolls. Claims fell 21,000 (4.2%) from the same
week in October. During the last ten years there has been a negative
84% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in
nonfarm payrolls.· Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during
the latest week ticked up 5,000 after a little-revised 289,000 decline
during the week prior. Continuing claims were at the lowest level since
late-February. The overall decline is a function of the improved job
market but also reflects the exhaustion of unemployment benefits.
Continuing claims provide an indication of workers' ability to find
employment. The four-week average of continuing claims fell to
5,318,250. This series dates back to 1966.
Extended
benefits for unemployment insurance retraced much of the prior week's
decline with a rise to 503,100 during the fourth week of November. The
latest compares to 550,343 during all of October.
The insured rate of unemployment remained stable at 3.9%, the lowest level since February. The rate reached a high of 5.2% during late-June. During the last ten years, there has been a 93% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. · The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending November 28 were in Wisconsin (6.4), Oregon (6.3), Alaska (6.2), Nevada (5.5), Puerto Rico (5.5%), Pennsylvania (5.3), Michigan (5.3), California (4.9) and South Carolina (4.8). The lowest insured unemployment rates were in North Dakota (1.6%), Virginia (2.2), Texas (2.6), Maine (3.1), Wyoming (3.2), Maryland (3.2), Mississippi (3.7), New York (3.8), Florida (3.8) and Ohio (3.9). The data are not seasonally adjusted but the overall insured unemployment rate is.· The unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY database and the state data is in the REGIONW database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 12/12/09 | 12/05/09 | 11/28/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 480 | 473 | 454 | -13.0% | 420 | 321 | 313 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 5,186 | 5,181 | 19.1% | 3,342 | 2,552 | 2,459 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.3 (12/2008) | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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