Global| May 28 2009U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Slip Again Though Continuing Claims Reach Another Record
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Another tenuous sign improvement in the labor market came from last week's decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance, down a modest 13,000 to 623,000. That followed an upwardly revised level during the prior week of [...]
Another tenuous sign improvement in the labor market came from last week's decline in initial claims for unemployment insurance, down a modest 13,000 to 623,000. That followed an upwardly revised level during the prior week of 636,000. Though still at a high level, initial claims are down from their March peak of 674,000. The four-week average of claims, which smoothes out some of the volatility in the weekly numbers, ticked down to 626,750, near the lowest level since mid-February. The Consensus expectation was for 630,000 claims last week.
The Labor Department indicated that the largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 16 were in California (+5,447), North Carolina (+2,693), Georgia (+1,595), Washington (+764), and Florida (+528), while the largest decreases were in Michigan (-9,758), Kentucky (-4,323), Illinois (-3,425), Indiana (-3,081), and Ohio (-2,522).
Despite the improvement in initial claims, the job market remains notably weak. Continuing claims for unemployment insurance, which provide an indication of workers' ability to find employment increased to another record high of 6,788,000, more than twice the year ago level. The series dates back to 1966. Further indicating that the job market remains weak, the four-week average of continuing claims also rose to another record of 6,608,250.
The lack of hiring continued to push the insured unemployment rate higher to 5.1%. That level was more than double last April and the highest level since 1983. During the last ten years there has been a 93% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.Clearly, the latest weekly figure understates labor market distress in some states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week May 9 were in Oregon (7.3 percent), Michigan (7.1), Nevada (6.4), Pennsylvania (6.4), Puerto Rico (6.2), Wisconsin (6.0), Idaho (5.7), California (5.5), North Carolina (5.5), and Illinois (5.4).
The unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY database.The recession in perspective from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/23/09 | 05/16/09 | 05/09/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 623 | 636 | 643 | 64.8% | 420 | 321 | 313 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 6,788 | 6,678 | 118.8% | 3,342 | 2,552 | 2,459 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
