Global| Jan 14 2010U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Higher Again
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market again deteriorated just slightly last week. The Labor Department reported that initial claims for jobless insurance rose 11,000 to 444,000 following a 1,000 increase during the prior week. Nevertheless, claims remained [...]
The
job
market again deteriorated just slightly last week. The Labor Department
reported that initial claims for jobless insurance rose 11,000 to
444,000 following a 1,000 increase during the prior week. Nevertheless,
claims remained near the lowest level since late in August, 2008 and
were down from the recession peak of 674,000 hit last March. Consensus
expectations has been for an unchanged 433,000. Despite the weekly
gains, the four-week moving average of initial claims also fell to a
new cycle-low of 440,750.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the latest week again fell sharply. The 211,000 drop was the largest since late-November and part of a one-third decline since late-June. Continuing claims were at the lowest level since mid-January of last year. The overall decline is a function of the improved job market but also reflects the exhaustion of 26 weeks of unemployment benefits. Continuing claims provide an indication of workers' ability to find employment. The four-week average of continuing claims fell to 4,855,00. This series dates back to 1966. · Extended benefits for unemployment insurance ticked up slightly to 302,272 during the fourth week of December but remained down by one-half from the peak reached during November of 597,688.
The insured rate of unemployment also fell to a new low of 3.5%. The rate reached a high of 5.2% during late-June. During the last ten years, there has been a 93% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending December 26 were in Alaska (7.4 percent), Oregon (6.6), Idaho (6.2), Wisconsin (6.2), Michigan (5.9), Montana (5.7), Nevada (5.7), North Carolina (5.6), Pennsylvania (5.5), and Washington (5.4). The lowest insured unemployment rates were in Virginia (2.1%), North Dakota (2.5), Texas (2.6), Maryland (3.0), Florida (3.4), Wyoming (3.4), Ohio (3.7), Maine (3.7), New York (4.0) and Mississippi (4.2). These data are not seasonally adjusted but the overall insured unemployment rate is.
The unemployment insurance claims data is available in Haver's WEEKLY database and the state data is in the REGIONW database.
Labor Market Globalization in the Recession and Beyond from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 1/8/10 | 1/1/10 | 12/25/09 | Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 444 | 433 | 432 | -17.0% | 573 | 419 | 321 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 4,596 | 4,807 | 2.4% | 5,835 | 3,345 | 2,552 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 (1/2009) | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
