Global| Jan 13 2011U.S. Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Climb to Highest Since October
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped last week to 445,000 from 410,000 (initially reported as 409,000). The latest was higher than expectations for 402,000 according to Bloomberg. It also was the highest figure since the [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped last week to 445,000
from 410,000 (initially reported as 409,000). The latest was higher than
expectations for 402,000 according to Bloomberg. It also was the highest figure
since the last week of October. The four-week moving average rose to 416,500.
The Labor Department indicated that the holidays may have affected recent
months' volatility.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance dropped a huge 248,000 to 3.879 million, their lowest since 2008. The insured unemployment rate also fell to 3.1%. These claimants, however, are only about half of the total number of people currently receiving unemployment insurance. Regular extended benefits, with eligibility dependent on conditions in individual states, fell to 862,331 during week ending December 25 (the latest figure available). A companion program, Emergency Unemployment Compensation, referred to as EUC 2008, saw 3.773M beneficiaries in the December 25 week.
A grand total of all claimants for unemployment insurance includes extended and emergency programs and specialized programs covering recently discharged veterans, federal employees and those in state-run "workshare" programs. All together, on December 25, the total number of all these recipients was 9.194M, off 15.6% y/y. We calculate a broader insured unemployment rate by taking this grand total as a percent of the covered employment series. That rate was over 7% on December 25. It peaked at 9.3% on January 2, 2010.
Two other programs, disaster unemployment assistance (DUA) and trade readjustment allowance (TRA), are reported through a different Labor Department channel and have no new data this week. All of these individual program data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 01/08/11 | 01/01/11 | 12/25/10 | Y/Y % | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 445 | 410 | 391 | -5.3 | 457 | 572 | 419 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,879 | 4,150 | -20.2 | 4,545 | 5,809 | 3,340 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate(%) | -- | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.7 (1/10) |
3.6 | 4.4 | 2.5 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA)* | -- | -- | 9.194M | -15.6% | 9.850M | 9.163M | 3.903M |
*Excludes disaster unemployment assistance and trade readjustment allowance
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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