Global| Oct 15 2015U.S. Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance Touch 1973 Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market continues to strengthen. Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 255,000 (-6.8% y/y) during the week ended October 10 from a little-revised 262,000 during the prior week. The figure matched the lowest [...]
The job market continues to strengthen. Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 255,000 (-6.8% y/y) during the week ended October 10 from a little-revised 262,000 during the prior week. The figure matched the lowest point since November 1973. The four week moving average of claims eased to 265,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 265,000 initial claims in the latest week. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ended October 3, continuing claims for unemployment insurance eased w/w to 2.158 million (-10.3% y/y) and remained near the November 2000 low. The four-week moving average fell to 2.201 million.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at 1.6%, equaling the lowest point since June 2000.
By state, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary with South Dakota (0.23%), Nebraska (0.52%), New Hampshire (0.66%), Virginia (0.72%), Maine (0.78%) and South Carolina (0.82%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (1.71%), Connecticut (2.00%), Pennsylvania (2.06%), California (2.12%), New Jersey (2.32%) and Alaska (2.53%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/10/15 | 10/03/15 | 09/26/15 | Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 255 | 262 | 276 | -6.8 | 309 | 343 | 374 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,158 | 2,208 | -10.3 | 2,599 | 2,978 | 3,319 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.8 (10/14) |
2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
