Global| Sep 25 2008U.S. Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance Surged Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped again last week. The level of 493,000 compared to an upwardly revised 461,000 during the week prior. The latest was the highest level since during the recession of 2001. The four-week [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance jumped again last week. The level of 493,000 compared to an upwardly revised 461,000 during the week prior. The latest was the highest level since during the recession of 2001.
The four-week moving average also jumped to the highest level since the last recession and stood at 462,500 (45.7% y/y). During August initial claims averaged 443,000.
A claims level below 400,000 typically has been associated with positive growth in nonfarm payrolls. During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 76% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment. Over the longer period of time, the level of claims for jobless insurance has not trended higher with the size of the labor force due to a higher proportion of self-employed workers who are not eligible for benefits.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the latest week rose 63,000 and reversed a 53,000 decline during the prior period. The four-week average of claims rose to 3,489,250. That was the highest level since July 2003. Continuing claims provide some indication of workers' ability to find employment and they lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment held stable for the third week at 2.6%, the highest level since late-2003.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 09/20/08 | 09/13/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 493 | 461 | 59.5% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,542 | 38.4% | 2,552 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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