Global| Oct 30 2008U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Stable But High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for jobless insurance were stable last week at 479,000, near the high for this cycle. The figure was about as expected. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell slightly to 475,500 (44.2% y/y), still just off [...]
Initial claims for jobless insurance were stable last week at 479,000, near the high for this cycle. The figure was about as expected. The four-week moving average of initial claims fell slightly to 475,500 (44.2% y/y), still just off the cycle high.
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending Oct. 18 were in Tennessee (+1,956), Oregon (+1,802), Indiana (+1,297), Virginia (+898), and Florida (+543), while the largest decreases were in New York (-6,080), Michigan (-5,894), Illinois (-3,795), Ohio (-2,923), and Kentucky (-2,494).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the week of October 18 fell 12,000 after a revised 7,000 increase during the prior week, initially reported as a slight decline. The four-week average of continuing claims rose further to this cycle's high of 3,709,500, the highest level since early 2003. Continuing claims provide some indication of workers' ability to find employment and they lag the initial claims figures by one week.
The insured rate of unemployment was stable for the third week at 2.8%. That was this cycle's high and the highest since mid-2003. The high in that recessionary period was 3.0% reached in late June 2003.
What Exactly Is a Recession—and Are We in One? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/25/08 | 10/18/08 | 10/11/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 478 | 479 | 463 | 44.3% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,715 | 3,727 | 43.0 | 2,552 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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